Beyond Meat Facing Meaty Challenges

Weak sales, a nasty loss & a stab in the back
Charlie Richardson
25 February 2021
Beyond Meat Facing Meaty Challenges

What happened and why The Beyond Meat narrative: Fast-growing, chunky-margin and just can't make them fast enough. The Beyond (-17.71%) reality looks very different... Stuffed between that pea-protein patty appears to be a lot of hot-air that is slowly releasing from the stock as the company served up weak sales, a nasty loss and a stab in the back... Starting with the latest news and numbers... Skinny fries... The Cali-HQ'd pioneer said revenues in the third quarter rose just +2.7% compared to a year ago... some way off the 48% rise that analysts had predicted.One in, Mc out... Pizza Hut became the first national pizza chain to introduce plant-based meat pizzas but McDonalds launched the 'McPlant'; a burger crafted "for McDonald’s, by McDonald’s..." ... even if Beyond say otherwise. Beyond Meat had claimed the McPlant was the meeting of two great minds but McDonald's have left any mention of Beyond out. After testing the Beyond patties in Canada, McDonald's appears to have made the split. Best case, we can put the losses down to the "unpredictability of COVID-19” and stock-pilling... 👀 Now for the bigger picture (and it only gets worse)... That sub-3% growth is more akin to a steady food conglomerate than a company pitched as industry-toppling pioneer carrying a $10 billion valuation (which is 20-times current revenues btw). And when you peel back the bun, the pickle and the onions, it's ugly... 'adjusted gross margin'... i.e. not including inventory write-offs/waste (not quite how it works) is down 7%. As with any innovative business, Beyond felt compelled to innovate with the metrics but even they're heading south.Stockpiling ...? Beyond have talked a big game about just trying to meet demand in the recent past. Not so much of a challenge these days. Stock is mounting high as demand slows. Either they've got a mega order coming soon, or first-time Beyond-ers aren't coming back. There is now $132 million worth of pea-patty gather dusty ice right now - that's 60% more than last year. So, in summary, demand is dying up, supply is growing and margin is thinning in a hyper-competitive industry where Impossible Foods are growing fast. Thankfully, Beyond has a $10 billion valuation buffer to work off and that should buy them time, | The Takeaway The silence could be golden arches... If McDonald's furore on its McPlant turns out to be fuelled by Beyond, then the company has a good reason for a stockpile. If they don't, then the pea-powered patty maker has some selling to do. The return to losses may have been the nasty surprise that sent investors fleeing but COVID could account for part of that. The underlying mountain of low margin stock however, is where the eyes should be.